500 calendar days.....34 days down...... below previous low, and now reversing back above.....adding to longs from this morning....
Tuesday 8th July July 2008 - 13:36pm
I am betting on the turn in the market is now in and we will see higher prices from here. I have been buying all morning in the FTSE, the DAX and the Dow.... I think we will at least have a couple of positive days ahead of us. It looks like real capitulation in the Dow this morning...so here is to the 500 day cycle.... I had several emails asking me if I thought we would be going up for 500 days now :)))))..... no I dont...
Tom
THERE IS AN ERROR IN MY NEWSLETTER. I WROTE:
"THIS IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES. I AM CATAGORICALLY STATING THE MARKET WILL TURN"
This is an error and it should read: " This is for information purposes only. I am not catagorically stating the markets will turn".
I hope that is clear from the context.
Regards
Tom
This weeks newsletter:
3rd July 2008 TraderTom Newsletter
There is an error in the PDF... the 4th July is not "Thanksgiving" as written....my bad...sorry US citizens... my bad...
2nd July 2008 - added at 17:33pm
Very big Turn date coming on 4th July.... explanation will follow tomorrow... It may turn this ship around.
BIG DOWN MONTHS
I got this from Larry. I don't know the source, but I will post it later. The text is as follows:
The Dow was down 10.9% in June. We went back to January 1940 and found that the Dow has only had 9 other down months of more than 10% declines. As you can see from the table below, in 8 of the 9 instances, the Dow was higher 6 months later.
Wednesday 2nd July July 2008 - 08:00am
Rally looking good.....
Tuesday 1st July 2008 - 14:13pm
been away on holiday and the ba#### place did not have internet..... I would name them and shame them, but I might get sued... .... only back now, and this does not look pretty.... full update in the morning....
Tom
Friday 27th June 2008 - 00:33am
Good morning,
my website has been out of action yesterday, and I have just got it back online.
I wrote in my newsletter on Tuesday that I was looking for upside. I had a cycle count, which is very reliable, and I was looking for the Fed night to be my guiding mark. I was thinking that the market would like it, and the turn would come as indicated in the newsletter.
On Tuesday we hit 11725, which was exactl the low of the 10th March this year. The Dow promptly rallied 200 points. That was a good trade if you believed the old low from March was an area of support.
I have not been able to post until now. The Dow broke below the low of the 10th March on a big GAP down move, and the market was a sell the rest of the day. There was nothing to suggest a buy at any point. Furthermore the Dow is making new lows for the year BUT the SP500 is not. I think the SP500 too needs to make news lows.
Wednesday 25th June 2008 - 11:09am
Good morning,
tonight is FED night. The FOMC releases their interest rate statement. I think they are forced to do nothing. I also think the markets will like it, and after the sell-off Monday, I think we are beginning a counter-move, retracing some of the lost ground. It is 13 and 21 weeks from the two lows in Jan and March. That gives me confidence to suggest that upside is coming. I am not however convinced that we won't see more volatility over the summer. I wrote in my newsletter(see below) that a 23% retracement in TIME would put the market on track for a low in October 08 or Jan 09. Between now and then we will have another move higher and then back down again. A lot of emphasis will be placed on tonight and the next two sessions. A lot of bad news has been priced in, and a sufficient amount of investors have been scared out of positions from seeing the Dow below 12000.
Lets see how tonight goes, and then we can asses the situation tomorrow morning.
there was no update Friday, as I was participating in the IX show in London. I am writing my newsletter now. I wrote in the last newsletter and in the previous one that the charts pointed to a retest of the lows from March. I think we are in a position to focus on the bullish side now. I will send out the newsletter later in the day, around 3pm. Some have sent me emails saying they don't get the newsletter despite having signed up. I will post a message here once the newsletter has gone out. If you still haven't received it, please let me know.
ANALYSIS
3rd July 2008 TraderTom Newsletter 
