A notice to those who attended the Hard Right Edge Workshop on Saturday: the risk paid off overnight. The Dow trade yielded 40 points. All units are closed. The Dax bounced and is closed, as is the FTSE.
The European indices are being called lower, but have seen some buying in the early morning. The Dow is being called up 20-30 points. All in all you dont need me to tell you we are in a down-trend. It looks to be a volatile and tricky day.
I will post both the FTSE and the DAX Market Maps this morning. Unfortunately they are pointing in different directions, so I will watch the key turning points.
6th June 2008 18:14pm update
taking the position off at 1377ish...no signal >> 30+ SP500 points..
have a nice weekend. I will send out the newsletter for TraderTom monday morning...
All the best
Tom
6th June 2008 09:41am update
I am short the SP500..... chart below shows why....
5th June 2008 09:16am update
I got stopped out of my Euro trade for nothing after the rally to 1/5456. I also got clipped in the Dax, which is really annoying. My stop was at 6952, yet the low of the day is 53.18. How I got stopped out, I dont know. Darn SB company :))
I am still long another unit of Dax that had a stop at 45. I am also still long FTSE. I will move stops to B/E and see what the day offers..
Finally CNBC has cancelled my interview... and rescheduled for next Thursday....
Tom
5th June 2008 07:31am
Good morning,
I am tightening the stop on the indices....they are slow to react this morning... anything can happen..
I have bought some Euro Dollar after a re-test at 1.5427..
Tom
5th June 2008 06:58am
Good morning again,
The Dax is opening shortly. If we got a good open above the close last night, which I think we will, then I will bail on the short side and reverse long on Dax too and stay long FTSE. As I type this, the Dax has opened pretty flat. I have closed my Dax short at a scratch, and will stay long FTSE. I have also initiated a long in the DAX at 6965.
Now I need to sit pretty till 8am or longer...... Stops are in place too. 20 points risk on first unit... Dax map to follow:
The Bradley model for 2008 is pointing down until election time in the US. So buyers be aware!!!!!
Good luck today....
5th June 2008 05:45am
Good morning,
The FTSE is called down 20 points to 5950 and the DAX down 10 points to 6955. In there lies an opportunity. I am going to buy some FTSE and sell short some Dax in equal weight, nothing big, just dipping my toes as they say.
I suspect that the SB may not have called the indices down enough this morning. The Dow managed to lose all the gains from yesterday and close in the red. So far the Dow is being called to open flat today. I still think that index has a date with 12200 this week, which I suspect will bring the FTSE closer to 5900.On a positive note, I dont expect we have to wait very long before some sort of dead-cat one-day wonder rally will take place in the banking stocks in the UK. As a sector they are getting quite beaten up, for a good reason, but nothing stays down for that long.
I will post some charts at 7am.
I am on CNBC this morning at 11:35am talking about the technical outlook for the market. Later this morning I will show you a chart of what the Bradley model is saying.....stay tuned...
Regards
Tom
4th June 2008 12:02pm
Well, it seems like I am not the only one who has been caught by surprise by the FTSE trading hours. It certainly messes up a few ideas on my part, but I will watch it closely. Volume last night sucked. That has its advantages and disadvantages.
We got a trend day at our hands. I joined the short party this morning a little later than I would have liked. Still, with this momentum, the FTSE could be on its way to 5825, but probably not today. There is support at 5950. There is a 50% to watch at 5896. All in all I will stay short. Once we get into 14:30, when the US opens, I will watch how much of a bounce we get. On the worst FTSE days, you will see some small bounce, and then new lows for the day. The Dow is sitting near its lows for the day too. There is good support in the Dow at 12275, which is an old swing low and the 61.8% retracement. The Dow Map for the 4th June is not offering any let up either:
Next update 5th June 2008 in the morning
Tom Hougaard
4th June 2008 06:40am
Buying the open and pre-open yesterday worked well. However, this morning I am staying on the sideline. The FTSE is being called down 40 points, and I am not sure that is enough. I would expect a flirt with 6000 again, which is taking the cash market down 60 points.
I will post again around 10am, with some charts.
PS: over the last 2 days I have had data for the FTSE 100 futures into 9pm at night. Have I missed an announcement that they are now trading till 9pm? That will change a few things, if that is the case.
Tom
3rd June 2008 06:40am
I am travelling this morning. Website will not be updated until tonight if need be, or will be back tomorrow morning.
I am expecting a bounce in the FTSE, and have myself just bought some Dow with a 30 point stop...
UPDATE: the Weekly Newsletter has been sent out today at 1pm.
Tom
2nd June 2008 09:40am
Gold looks poised for higher prices...
Good morning,
I am trading the FTSE from this model today:
I am trying to write my weekly newsletter too, but there is too much going on this morning. I will update you either via newsletter or on the site later today..
Tom
1st June 2008 20:56pm
Good evening,
My friend Steve Copan, who created the Matrix CD course, has re-created the Matrix in book format at a quarter of the price of the original course. It is a stunning piece of work on time cycles. You can read more about it by clicking here.
ANALYSIS
