OK - it will be a tricky day. I got stopped out of the FTSE 100 around 6200, but I am now actually in again. You should know that Citi Group is the cause of the big decline on worries they will cut their dividend. Technically we are testing the lows from Friday and that is healthy. I will add to my position on any bounce and rally, but I will cut my loss around 6120 in the FTSE. Citi Group will report in the next 60 minutes so stay alert. I will not update more today
I believe that we are in a phase where panic is prevailing. I have a low in this time frame, and I will rather be long than short right now. It may get jumpy over the next few days...
Next update Wednesday at 08:00am
Kind regards
Tom Hougaard
15th January 2008 - 07:01am
I am living the highlife: I am doing a radio interview for radio Wales at 08:00am on nationalisation of Northern Rock :)). It means I wont update properly until around 9am.
The US futures are being slammed on rumours/news that CitiGroup is cutting its dividend. It may save City upteen billions, but the market is probably not going to like it. I am still long the FTSE but have been forced to hedge this morning as I can't watch. I will update around 9am.
Regards
Tom
14th January 2008 - 07:45am
I have bought some more FTSE and Dow this morning. Someone, an unfortunate soul, just made an error and sold 60,000 e-mini contracts and plunged the market for a minute or so. Now we are back up to where we were.
Let's review where we are in the market briefly. We had a plunge on Friday night, which will either continue today or we will see a reversal. I am betting on a reversal. I have several reasons to do so:
1/ we printed a perfect 1:1 on the FTSE. It even looks like a Gartley pattern ( please view chart from Friday)
2/ The Bradley model is turning. I am putting less emphasis on this, but fact is we are deeply oversold, and overdue a correction. The trend is down of course, but I am betting that the turn from Wednesday will hold the market here.
The Market Map for today is pointing to higher prices. Here is the one for the FTSE 100:
11th January 2008 - 07:45am
UPDATE at 09:59
I AM LONG FTSE 100. The Index has just printed a volume spike reversal into a perfect 1:1. I am long from 6190. I think we will see a good bounce from this lows. My stop will be 20 points below entry. This is not a day trade if I can avoid getting stopped out. The trend is of down, so it may require more than one entry as things could get volatile around the US open at 14:30.
Here is the chart: The two major declines are now equal in length. The market made a spike on volume. So I want to me long here until proven wrong.
There is a great stock market prediction mode called the BRADLEY model. My friend Larry Pesavento sent me this chart with the DAX as an overlay. It is pointing to a turn coming up now. Of course the trend is still very much down, but I thought I would show you the chart.
CLICK ON CHART TO HIGHLIGHT
Good morning,
shocking open in the Dow today, down 150 points. I will post more around 10am. I want to see how the FTSE reacts.
Here is the Map for the FTSE 100:
10th January 2008 - 07:45am
Good morning,
I am just finishing off the agenda for the seminar on the 2nd February 2008. It will be packed with trading strategies and set-ups. I hope you will join me there. I will post all the details by the latest Friday morning on the website.
I was quite disappointed that my long positions in Asia havent materialised into healthy profits. I was expecting a rally, especially on the back of the excellent rally in the Dow. I am still long today, in both the DAX and the FTSE, and I naturally expect the positive close on Wall Street to feed through to Europe. However, over the last 48 hours I have been stopped out more than ever before. This tells me that the current environment is one where you should grap your profits before the run away. It is simply too volatile market to bet on a decent prolonged trend intra-day.
The FTSE need to close above 6300 on an hourly chart before you can begin to trade long -bets on it intra-day. I would be very disappointed if the FTSE can't muster a close above 6300 by 10am today. It would be an intra-day buy signal to have the FTSE close above this key level. I will be hapier about the upside if the FTSE can close intra-day on an hourly chart above 6300. Then I would be a buyer of dips all day. Keep an eye on the US futures. Right now the Dow is set to open minus 40.
The German Dax Map today speaks volumes. It is pointing to higher prices but towards the end of the day we are seeing a sharp sell-off. I use this to remind myself to trail those profits closely. Anything can still happen in this market, even if we are due a change in the trend.
Yesterday I showed a chart of the Market Map for the FTSE 100. The Map is a proprietary program which forecast the intra-day direction of the market, in this case the FTSE 100 index. Take a look at the prediction below and the actual FTSE 100 chart from yesterday next to it:
I got stopped out late afternoon in my index trades in the Dow, and have re-entered late last night and this morning. The SP500 is now in an area where a potential will be found and a rebound will occur. We hit 1390 in the index at the close last night. Asia is rebounding and is now trading in positive territory. I suspect the low I was looking for may have come a few hours later than I thought. It certainly was the kind of capitulation low I was hoping for.
I will look to buy the FTSE 100 index around 6275 for a move back up to 6450.The same applies to the Dax. I am already long the Dow from the close last night. It was clear capitulation selling in the Dow and SP500 last night.
There is a boring stock I really like. I think this one is head up to £2.20 or higher. VODAFONE. Yes, that old chestnut of a stock. We all know it so well. Take a look at the monthly chart. The theory here is that although the economy is bad, we will still find time to call our friends and family and b**** about how bad things are :))
Next update 10th January 2008
Kind regards and happy trading (it will be a good one today)
I have a Matrix turn which should kick in today or even last night. I am long the Nikkei, as well as the FTSE, the DAX and the Dow.
The FTSE 100 Index is in a price area where a reversal is likely. It is oversold on the indicators, and the large 1-hour sell-off in the final hour yesterday was completely reversed by the close. I will be a buyer above (buy more) 6350 for more than a day trade.
The FTSE 100 Market Map supports the idea of a rally today. I am obviously not going to throw caution to the wind. The trend is still down, but with the Matrix cycle turn in place I suspect that we will see the market rebound slowly.
Here is today's FTSE 100 Market Map. You can take out a trial subscription for the Market Map by clicking here.
Good luck trading today.
Tom Hougaard
TraderTom
7th January 2008
Good morning,
I am preparing an analysis right now, but I wanted to show you what the Market Map is saying about the DAX today. I think we too will have a bounce in the indices today. A Matrix low is due tonight/tomorrow morning. Here is the Map. I will post more around 11am.
ANALYSIS
