I have finally had the response from the company, which severely affected my trading during the mid-January sell-off and their settlement offer.
I can't mention any name yet, but I have asked for permisson to publish it. If they will let me, you will be able to read responses such as "while it is true that you could not get out at your desired price, you were EVENTUALLY able to....". It makes very good reading, especially how they have a paragraph on their terms and conditions by which they can hide behind"..... more to come....
Have a nice weekend
Tom Hougaard
14th March 2008 - 05:45am
Good morning,
I have deliberately not posted much this week. I am patiently waiting for a clear signal that a low has been made. I sent out a newsletter early in the week with a Fib timing chart. The chart suggested that this week had some significant links to previous highs and lows, forming a significant relationship, which the market tends to display at longer-term highs and lows. Yesterday was a buying opportunity, as I read the market. I then wake up to see the Dow being called down 120 points as I write this at 05:45am. The volatility is increasing significantly, and today being Friday, I wonder how bad/good it will be.
Basically I am thinking along the lines of this. I think that the Fib chart and the Martin Armstrong chart that you can see further down this page is suggesting that we are building a low here. Martin Armstrongs chart suggest the 22nd March. Given his accuracy in the past I am not accumulating a bigger position for the time being. However, I wish place myself for a rally of 4-6 weeks duration by buying a handfull of stocks, both in the UK and US. The problem is that his turn date is not for another week, and the way the market is trading makes me believe there is more downside in the pipeline. The Yen/Dow relationship is playing itself out with the Nikkei being sold off to two year lows. As we head into the last day of the week, I am still sat with my shopping list, waiting patiently for the right moment.
Technically 1325 is my signal for the cash to make it back up to 1400. I thought yesterday was going to be my signal day, but we failed once again. I have now drawn two targets in case we see a panic today or next week.
I am speaking today at the IX show at 10am on "funny stories in the market - the difference between technical and fundamental analysis."....
Have a nice weekend
Tom Hougaard
www.tradertom.com
10th March 2008 - 17:02
Good morning,
I have sent out my weekly newsletter 20 min ago. If you want to receive it, please click here and sign up.
I have attached the newsletter here for this week, but in the future it will be sent directly to you.
We traded near the lows that was made back in January last night in the US. This morning we are looking for a lower open in all European indices.
Today's overshadowing event will be the Non-Farm Payroll number, which will have the power to either truly sink this market to its knees or potentially give it some kind of hope for a recovey. As many of you know I am more inclined to look at charts than study the fundamentals. I would to direct your attention to one of the most esteemed economist of our time, Martin Armstrong - former chairman of the Princeton Economic Institute - now imprisoned for fraud!!
This character wrote extensively about the business cycle and concluded that our economic activity oscilates around an 8.6 year cycle. It predicted a turn on the 27th February 2007 as a top for the then economic expansion. That coincided with the Dow's 1000 point drop and the first major correction in the market in 4 years. His model has predicted a number of turns in the market. The next turn, you might be interested to know, is a mere 15 days away, on the 22nd March. Could that be a temporary low and a slightly brighter market lying ahead?
Well Fib may have a say in that too. A turn is coming up. It is now 21 weeks from the last high, and a string of other numbers are suggesting a turn is on the cards. Watch this one closely..
You remember the call for the turn on the 27th February 2007, last year, which turned the market on a dime. That was the Pi Cycle that Martin Armstrong had used with phenomenol results. Well, guess what? We have another date coming up in 16 days. The date is the 22nd March.
I thought you would like to know.
Tom
6th March 2008 - 06:17am
Good morning,
The US futures are pointing to a higher start this morning. The SB companies think that the FTSE will open up in positive but the DAX is called slightly down. If you download the PowerPoint Presentation here, you will see that the DAX is lagging the FTSE 100 in relative performance. However, in times of retracement, which is what suggested yesterday we will see for the next couple of days, the DAX outperforms the FTSE. Accordingly I like to arbitrage the two by buying DAX and selling the FTSE 100. It paid off yesterday.
Commodities are on fire, but the chart below is getting interesting for a Short Sell. Crude oil since 2003 have had a consistent swing rate of around $18-$22.
For 5 years Crude Oil has been trending higher. Every single swing up has been in the region of $18 up to $20. There has been two exceptions where oil went for a $23 swing and one of a $30 swing. My view here is that oil is setting itself up for a Short Sell. This is not a day-trade of course!! - Corrections have tended to last a number of weeks.
I am trading on the long side now. I think we are in a downtrend, which will mean lower prices into mid-march. However, right now I am betting that over the next couple of days we will see the market correct against the downtrend.
Tom
3rd March 2008
I did an interview with Cantos TV. Click here to watch.
I have done a weekly TA. You can download it here in a Powerpoint Presentation.
more coming tomorrow.... I am on Bloomberg tomorrow mornign at 07:12am.
Hope you had a good trading day.
Tom
28th February 2008
I will resume normal service 3rd March, first-coming Monday
tom
26th February 2008
The server change is complete. There may be the odd teathing problem, but it seems to be working fairly smooth now.
The 200-day moving average is one of the most celebrated investment tools. For traders it has little value. However, I wanted to test how oversold this market is compared to the past. There is absolutely no point in me bringing up an oscilator of any kind. They will all say the same: the markets are oversold.
On the chart below I have charted the points divergence between the Dow and the Dow 200-day Moving Average. In time of bull markets the divergence will always be above zero. In times of crashes and sharp corrections, the graph below will be below zero.
Those spikes you see in the middle of the chart are the 9/11 and 10/10/02(end of bear market). The rest of the spikes have all stopped when the divergence between the Dow and the 200-day Ma has been more than 1000. This research has led me to believe that we will see the market attempt to get back towards the 200-day MA.
Now two things can happen here: one is that we will simply move into a range for some time while the MA catches up with the underlying price action. Otherwise we could see a snap back towards the MA. I really wish I could have showed you this chart on thursday when the difference between the two entities was over 1000. Right now it is only some 700 points.
Trader Tom is branching out: Public health Notice: What to do if you have a heart attack!!!!! This is an aid if you find yourself having a heart attack and there is no one around to help you....
ANALYSIS
