Tag Archives: Gold

27 Jan

Dr Paul – Commodity Analysis 27th Jan 2015

Gold and commodities

The Gold market is at a very important juncture. Is the 100$ move north in January the start of a new impulsive wave or merely a corrective wave preceding further downside.

At present the daily view shows a Gartley in process and from that we should see a selloff to at least 62% of the upswing. The G222 is shown in the first chart and the second shows the target.

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If the Gartley pattern should fail then that would be very positive for Gold and add to the case that the bear trend in Gold is complete and that the treble bottom shown on the third weekly chart is holding. The Macd is showing bullish normal divergence which adds to the evidence of a bottom.

Those holding Gold shares on a long term view should give the Gold market the benefit of the doubt and hold a bit longer.

Traders should watch very carefully. If this bottom can hold there can be a massive move in marginal Gold stocks.

3 2

All commodities look pretty much the same including the softs of Soybeans and wheat. All have had protracted bear markets but still precious little confirmation of a turn.

The oil market is still on the way down but sitting on long term support that’s been in place for many years.

Dr Paul - Commodity Analysis

Please remember that a long and tough bear market is a pre requisite for a strong bull market in the future.

I am watching BIL for an entry but it’s still early. In the UK there are dozens of oil stocks both large and miniscule that are worthy of attention.

It’s a very exciting time in commodity related stocks. That’s an insight that’s missing from the popular debate.

David Paul

16 Apr

Gold drops in price

Gold drops in price by $100 per ounce on Friday!
The big move down in Gold has caused quite a bit of concern on Wall Street. As you can see from the enclosed chart, Gold has the potential to go to the $1,440 per ounce level. If it can drop $100 in one day, it could certainly make another $40 without any trouble. Silver has also broken badly and is breaking out bottoms that have held for two years. This has long-term bearish implications on both of these metals. The fact that Gold and Silver could not rally during the Cyprus problem was the first indication that something was wrong. But it goes a lot deeper than that, as all commodities have been hit hard; including copper, platinum, palladium, and the grain markets. Falling commodity prices are deflationary, and the one thing the Federal Reserve cannot fathom.

1 – Nothing new has happened to the stock indices even though they made new highs once again this past week, but only marginally.

2 – The Dow Jones Transportation’s continued to weaken and was unable to make a new high.

3 – The Dow Jones Utility Index was able to make a 1.27 expansion.

4 – The Volatility Index (VIX) was able to hold the lows, giving some indication that there might be some fear beginning to come into the market.

5 – The Treasury Bonds were also rallying this week, which was quite unusual as they usually only rally when there is a flight to quality. We still believe that there is a possibility the Treasury Bonds can make the 150 level, where they could be a good selling opportunity.

6 – The Euro versus the US Dollar has reached a 382 retracement of the last high. This is the same pattern that occurred in Gold several weeks ago at the $1,625 per ounce level. The Euro needs to close above the 133 level in order to have any possibility of rallying further. This is a very bearish chart on a long-term basis with price objectives near 100. Remember, the Euro did once trade at 85 to the Dollar, so this is not out of the possibility.

7 – Notice the correlation of the chart on the cash S&P Index versus the Commodity Index. This convergence is very troublesome. Corporations buy products to convert into other products using commodities. How can commodities be dropping when corporations are supposedly making a lot of money selling these products? Something is not right somewhere. The charts are telling us the demand is not nearly as strong as our corporate executives would like us to believe.

8 – There is a wide divergence between the cash S&P and the yield on 30 year Treasury Bonds. This spread is at historical levels and is due to come closer to a normal relationship (i.e. lower stocks, higher interest rates).

9 – Crude oil has broken support at the 91 level, giving the next price objective in the mid-80s. This is in context to the other commodities also following to the downside.

Someone asked me where would I would investment at the present time and I can honestly say that I really think that the best thing to do, for a conservative investor, is to do nothing until the dust clears on the commodity markets. If these markets continue following to the downside, it is going to mean that deflation is going to come into play and something very ominous will happen to the bond market at that time. All of the central banks are doing the same thing. They are issuing more credit via their purchase of bonds in order to stimulate the economy à la the US Federal Reserve. This is an experimental project that no one knows the outcome. They are trying to pay off their credit card debt with more credit cards. That doesn’t work for us and probably won’t work for the government.

One thing is perfectly clear at this particular junction and that is that we are going to see some really wild volatility in all of the markets. The reasoning behind this is that unknown consequences of what the future can bring causes money to move rapidly to find a safe haven, whatever that safe haven may be. I’m sure those who purchase gold at $1,700 per ounce were thinking it was a safe investment and now under $1,500 per ounce they are probably reassessing their position.

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gold drops in price

Gold drops in price is part of an article by Larry Pesavento . He started trading commodities in the 1960s as a private trader, whilst working in the pharmaceutical industry. By the 1980s he was trading full-time from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, focusing on the SP500 futures. In total Larry has been devoted to the financial markets for more than 46 years. He has written a wealth of articles as well as 11 books on technical trading. A chance encounter as a broker with another legendary trader, Ruth Miller, saw him turn his attention to an area known as astrological forecasting. During the 1980s Larry ran a hugely successful financial newsletter providing timing signals using astrological confluences. When he is not trading, Larry spends time with his wife and children/grandchildren. Larry resides in Tucson, Arizona.
Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indices, currencies and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Readers may carry out their own trading based on what they learn from this article/video, but all risks of potential financial losses are the readers responsibility. We will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on articles posted within this website. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without prior written consent. All rights reserved.

07 Jan

Gold and Silver

Time sensitive analysis: Larry gives an compelling argument for an entry signal in gold and silver. The market has provided a low risk opportunity. Watch the videos for entry levels and stop loss criterias…

“Trade What You See, not What You Think” Larry Pesavento
Larry Pesavento is a 46 year veteran trader. He began his career trading full time in 1967 while in graduate school getting an MBA in Finance following a BS in Pharmacy. He managed the commodities department of Drexel Burnham Lambert in Southern California from 1976 to 1981. In 1982 he became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where was a local in the S&Ps currency pits. Following this he worked for a commodity corporation in Princeton New Jersey from 1985 to 1986 and in 1987 he wrote Astro Cycles The Traders Viewpoint and published a newsletter Astro Cycles until 1995.
He has one of the most extensive libraries on the subject of technical analysis and has trained over 1000 traders using the pattern recognition swing trading methodology described in his books. Over the past 25 years he has written 10 books on trading.

Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indices, currencies and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Readers may carry out their own trading based on what they learn from this article/video, but all risks of potential financial losses are the readers responsibility. We will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on articles posted within this website. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole or in part of this Gold and Silver article is not permitted without prior written consent. All rights reserved.

Gold Market Analysis

07 Jan

Gold Market Analysis

Larry is giving an extensive analysis on the gold market, which has been trending lower since November last year. Larry has been waiting for $1630 for a long time. It has made an ABCD and a 61% retracement. However, this video is not so much about the analysis, but how Larry trades an expected low. This video shows how Larry handles wide ranging bars. It is a rare insight into how a professional trader waits for a target to be hit and then how he attempts to get into the rebound. Larry scales down to a 5 min chart and gives specific recommendations for how he deals with a longer-term perspective on a short-term chart. It is an incredibly powerful video by Larry. Don’t miss it.

Gold Market Analysis Video

Larry Pesavento started trading commodities in the 1960s as a private trader, whilst working in the pharmaceutical industry. By the 1980s he was trading full-time from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, focusing on the SP500 futures. In total Larry has been devoted to the financial markets for more than 46 years. He has written a wealth of articles as well as 11 books on technical trading. A chance encounter as a broker with another legendary trader, Ruth Miller, saw him turn his attention to an area known as astrological forecasting. During the 1980s Larry ran a hugely successful financial newsletter providing timing signals using astrological confluences. When he is not trading, Larry spends time with his wife and children/grandchildren. Larry resides in Tucson, Arizona.

Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indices, currencies and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Readers may carry out their own trading based on what they learn from this article/video, but all risks of potential financial losses are the readers responsibility. We will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on articles posted within this website. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without prior written consent. All rights reserved.