Category Archives: Scalping

07 Feb

7th February 2014 – 31 trades for 31 winners: £2,864.50

I scaled my trading size down today, as I was tired. I had looked forward to Non-Farm Payroll numbers all week, but when it finally arrived, I didn’t have the normal zest.

I don’t tend to look at my performance during the day, so I don’t know if I am up or down on the day, and I don’t know how much my account is up or down. I find that helps me staying focused on the process and staying present in this moment. I think today would have been a £5000 day if I had stayed with my normal size.

I find that Friday is often the most volatile day of the week. I wonder if it is because everyone else is tired too? When you are tired, your risk profile increases, meaning you are more prone to take excessive risk.

You can learn a lot about my technique by going through the trades and see where I get in and out. It is not perfect trading, but it makes money. You want perfection in your trading? You will never be happy. By nature trading is such a disappointing endeavour. You get out too early and you are disappointed. You get out too late, and you are disappointed. You don’t get in, and you are disappointed, or you get in too early and you are disappointed.

Then there are the trades you don’t take because you think you know better, even though your hard earned system tells you otherwise. As Wayne Gretzky, Canadian ice hockey legend said:

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take

For traders it is even worse: if you stand back on a trade, two things can happen:

1/ you are right, and the trade would have gone against you, and you feel smug. Unfortunately, you have now begun a programming of your mind that you know better and you have enforced the wrong behaviour.

2/ you are wrong, and you are disappointed and you are upset with yourself for not following your plan.

Anyway, I have marginally gotten rid of my verbal diarrhea, thank you for reading.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Tom H

trading 7th february 2014 - all day
Trading Friday the 7th February – smaller trading size today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06 Feb

£1305 – from 15:34 to 16:53 – but can you spot the mistake? Price for right answer!

6th February 2014

What a day! Dax spikes, Dow bulldozing the bears, and Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow to look forward to.

I closed the live trading room at 15:30 today, a plus 1.6% day, and I started scalping the Dow in my own peace and quiet time.

I have a price for the right answer to the following puzzle.

Below is my trading for the last 90 minutes. As you can see, I made £1305 in 90 minutes, but there is something hidden in this statement, which I am not proud of.

If you think you know the answer, then go to the contact form, and submit your answer.

The quiz price is pretty good. I have a brand new, never opened set of the Steve Nison Candlestick course. This course was priced at $1100 when it came out. If you get the right answer, I will mail it to you. So I will contact you, if you are the winner, and I will ask for your mailing address. The first one to submit the right answer wins the price.

Here is the trading record for the last hour (below). If you are interested in learning how this is done, then contact me as well.

Tom

trading 6th february 2014 - 3pm

scalping Dow and Dax

31 Jan

£1853 – from 13:54 to 16:49 –

Friday the 31st January 2014

What a volatile day!!!

In the live trading room I pick trades that I know have high odds of winning. Today was an amazing day.

However, on volatile days, I simply can’t call the trades out as fast as I can execute them myself. So the trades I show in the live trading room are only a small sample of what I do when it is busy.

Here is a screen shot from an account. I have left in the time and instrument, so you can verify for yourself the authenticity of the trades. It made £1853 in 3 hours.

That is not to say my loyalty is not to the room. I made the room 2.90% today.

Do you want to learn to trade like this? Contact me.

scalping on a busy friday

16 Apr

Gold drops in price

Gold drops in price by $100 per ounce on Friday!
The big move down in Gold has caused quite a bit of concern on Wall Street. As you can see from the enclosed chart, Gold has the potential to go to the $1,440 per ounce level. If it can drop $100 in one day, it could certainly make another $40 without any trouble. Silver has also broken badly and is breaking out bottoms that have held for two years. This has long-term bearish implications on both of these metals. The fact that Gold and Silver could not rally during the Cyprus problem was the first indication that something was wrong. But it goes a lot deeper than that, as all commodities have been hit hard; including copper, platinum, palladium, and the grain markets. Falling commodity prices are deflationary, and the one thing the Federal Reserve cannot fathom.

1 – Nothing new has happened to the stock indices even though they made new highs once again this past week, but only marginally.

2 – The Dow Jones Transportation’s continued to weaken and was unable to make a new high.

3 – The Dow Jones Utility Index was able to make a 1.27 expansion.

4 – The Volatility Index (VIX) was able to hold the lows, giving some indication that there might be some fear beginning to come into the market.

5 – The Treasury Bonds were also rallying this week, which was quite unusual as they usually only rally when there is a flight to quality. We still believe that there is a possibility the Treasury Bonds can make the 150 level, where they could be a good selling opportunity.

6 – The Euro versus the US Dollar has reached a 382 retracement of the last high. This is the same pattern that occurred in Gold several weeks ago at the $1,625 per ounce level. The Euro needs to close above the 133 level in order to have any possibility of rallying further. This is a very bearish chart on a long-term basis with price objectives near 100. Remember, the Euro did once trade at 85 to the Dollar, so this is not out of the possibility.

7 – Notice the correlation of the chart on the cash S&P Index versus the Commodity Index. This convergence is very troublesome. Corporations buy products to convert into other products using commodities. How can commodities be dropping when corporations are supposedly making a lot of money selling these products? Something is not right somewhere. The charts are telling us the demand is not nearly as strong as our corporate executives would like us to believe.

8 – There is a wide divergence between the cash S&P and the yield on 30 year Treasury Bonds. This spread is at historical levels and is due to come closer to a normal relationship (i.e. lower stocks, higher interest rates).

9 – Crude oil has broken support at the 91 level, giving the next price objective in the mid-80s. This is in context to the other commodities also following to the downside.

Someone asked me where would I would investment at the present time and I can honestly say that I really think that the best thing to do, for a conservative investor, is to do nothing until the dust clears on the commodity markets. If these markets continue following to the downside, it is going to mean that deflation is going to come into play and something very ominous will happen to the bond market at that time. All of the central banks are doing the same thing. They are issuing more credit via their purchase of bonds in order to stimulate the economy à la the US Federal Reserve. This is an experimental project that no one knows the outcome. They are trying to pay off their credit card debt with more credit cards. That doesn’t work for us and probably won’t work for the government.

One thing is perfectly clear at this particular junction and that is that we are going to see some really wild volatility in all of the markets. The reasoning behind this is that unknown consequences of what the future can bring causes money to move rapidly to find a safe haven, whatever that safe haven may be. I’m sure those who purchase gold at $1,700 per ounce were thinking it was a safe investment and now under $1,500 per ounce they are probably reassessing their position.

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gold drops in price

Gold drops in price is part of an article by Larry Pesavento . He started trading commodities in the 1960s as a private trader, whilst working in the pharmaceutical industry. By the 1980s he was trading full-time from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, focusing on the SP500 futures. In total Larry has been devoted to the financial markets for more than 46 years. He has written a wealth of articles as well as 11 books on technical trading. A chance encounter as a broker with another legendary trader, Ruth Miller, saw him turn his attention to an area known as astrological forecasting. During the 1980s Larry ran a hugely successful financial newsletter providing timing signals using astrological confluences. When he is not trading, Larry spends time with his wife and children/grandchildren. Larry resides in Tucson, Arizona.
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