I was unable to post my thoughts earlier today. I had a 4am start.
I would like to give my thoughts to the current market and the forecast that I have made.
- I woke up early this morning to find the market significantly higher in Asia. As a result of it I started buying European indices and shorting Euro Dollar and Sterling Dollar. I am still in some of these trades. (Here is stupid story: I sold short FTSE because I thought it had gotten too expensive. I am losing on that trade, and I deserve to lose. There is no such thing as “cheap” or “expensive”, and I have no idea why I succumbed to this idea this morning. Maybe I was not concentrating.)
- I am still position short Dow Jones index where I am currently losing several hundred points. I am in with 10% of my proposed stake size, and I am watching the situation closely.
- In the meantime I am trading the markets intra-day.
I have seen nothing yet which negates the forecast. On the contrary this is what I have seen many times before. For example at the 2009 low I knew I was looking for a low, and the sentiment got more and more negative. It took the market 3-4 more days than I had expected before it turned. When it did turn, it turned with a vengeance.
I agree it would have been better to forecast a big move up. I will have to be open to possibility that the markets have turned a corner and will continue to move higher. There is only one thing more stupid about being wrong: to continue to argue you are right, when you are clearly wrong.