Monday 25 April 2016
I will start with the Dollar Yen. After the surprise attack by the central bank to weaken the yen last week, I thought it would be good to look at the chart. Naturally I am long dollar yen, after the chart pattern I posted last week (http://tomhougaard.dk/dollar-yen-alert-too-late-but-for-next-time/), but the chart doesn’t look at all so rosy. So there is conflict.
- I have a 61% fib resistance at the top (negative)
- I have a surge higher (positive)
- I have no obvious sell signals but overall the trend looks negative (negative)
- The market has made it back into the trading range. Anyone who has been short from this range will see profits evaporate now. The central bank has flexed its muscles (positive).
- The retracements have been more or less harmonious, but this can be interpreted both as positive and negative. The moves since last week has been orderly after the impulse up, and it has paid off to buy dips (positive), but the really big picture shows exactly the same pattern of big rallies before big declines in a big down-trend, so I have to accept that the bears are not dead (negative).
So what do you do? You take your bet. I will put most emphasis on the most recent developments, and I am therefore a buyer of Dollar Yen around this level of 111.10.
The Dow is interesting. I have a SELL signal using a mechanical method on the daily chart. This coincides with my time cycle chart too. Nevertheless I am not rushing out to sell short the Dow in big quantities. I have to be patient because I haven’t seen any damaging weakness yet. Maybe it will come this week, but what is more interesting for me is to discuss what I will have to see to be PROVEN WRONG.
I will need to see the Dow close above the highs of last week, preferably at the end of the week (or any weekly close above last week’s highs). Until I see that I will remain negative, but I will naturally be flexible in my trading during the week.
You can’t have Dow and not discuss the DAX. The DAX index still looks good. The first chart is the hourly chart, and it shows how well DAX is holding 10350. On the second chart you see the big picture. The big picture is bullish.
How do I trade this? I need to accept that the Dax looks better than the Dow, and until I see weakness in either index, I will have to accept that I am bullish from the charts, but I am quite bearish from a time cycle and a fundamental perspective. As always I will trade WHAT I SEE, and NOT WHAT I THINK.