Euro$ – Trade of the week

Posted on September 19, 2011 by admin

Euro$ - Trade of the week - Analysis Chart

The above H4 chart shows a classic bearish reverse divergence trade. I think that the Euro $ should be shorted and I am short already from Friday at 1.3800. I think it will probably rally in the East so all should be able to get a fill above this.

My stop is at 1.3950 and in this I am risking ½% of my account. If I see a break below 1.3700 and the market can sustain that level for an hour at least I will add to the position.

There are many roadblocks in the way but the final target for the trade is 1.3250.

After breaking a major trend line on Thursday/Friday the Gold price rallied strongly towards the close on Friday. The daily chart of the Gold price shows a marked triangle formation and a bullish reverse divergence. I think that if Gold breaks above Fridays high a strong upward move will begin. I will wait for a close above the downward sloping trend line defining the triangle and then look for an entry. The chart is shown below along with targets for the probable move. A gold price of 2000$ is in sight.

Gold shares should be held.

Dow - five wave continuation pattern

The Dow is charting out a five wave continuation pattern or flag formation. I believe that this is coming to an end. I have a major time turning point coming in this weekend which should show its hand on Monday or Tuesday. I thought that this date would be a bottom but now I am far from sure of that. I remain bearish and will wait for a reversal day on the daily chart prior to looking for an entry. If I change that stance I will report it here.

David Paul

Analysis – 5th August 2011

Posted on August 5, 2011 by admin

I am long Dow basis this pattern, a 1.618 extension….

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

The common belief is that the stock market rallies in the first days of the new month. To test it rigorously, I would have to select a random 5-6 day period and match it against the last day of the month and the first 5 days of the new month, to rule out the possibility that the market is simply rallying because we are in a bull trend.

I am not going to do that. Instead, I have gone back over the last 2 years, since the SP500 turned in March 2009

Analysis – 4th August 2011

Posted on August 4, 2011 by admin

As of today I am up 103% in 3 months in the live trading room.

I am short basis this pattern, a 2.618 extension of the previous range.

Analysis - 4th August 2011

Analysis – 7th Feb 2011

Posted on February 7, 2011 by admin

Dow pushes to the Sweet Zone

I first visited the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in the mid 1980,s and was first introduced to the rising wedge and falling wedge pattern. Those who have been to my courses or have followed my trading will know that I value these patterns more than any other. My trading partner Tom Hougaard says I see wedges under the sink.

There is an enormous rising wedge on the Dow. I have pointed this out many times. It’s easy to see and I have shown the daily view of the Dow cash below. The third trend line is the target line. This evening since my last post the Dow has reached the 1.618 extension of the pullback which occurred Friday before last.

The market in question usually pushes up through the top line defining the wedge and this area was known by the floor traders as the “Sweet Zone”. The Dow can easily get 50-100 points above the trend line, suck in lots of breakout followers and then spit them out.

Analysis - 7th Feb 2011

The wedge pattern has a hit rate of at least 70%. If it fails the market tend s to fly up the page.

Analysis – Jan 12th 2011

Posted on January 12, 2011 by admin

Highly speculative, as always, but with some rooting in technical analysis. The daily and weekly trend is down. Since last week the CHF crosses has been subject to a counter-trend move. The current price is at the 62% retracement of the last swing. It is a double top on the smaller time frame, and the swing up was 483 points, while the last two swings were 508 and 518. Ideally I would wait for the 78.6% retracement for a short, but I have taken a bet now at 97.48 with a small stop. If it fails, and it may (it is after all speculation!), I will gauge the market momentum at the 78.6%, which is at 99.00.

Analysis Jan 12th 2011

Trader Tom

Market Analysis for Traders

Category Archives: Analysis