Larry Pesavento newsletter 18th April 2012 – FACTS about APPLE Computer

Larry has just sent me his latest newsletter. I am passing it on to you, as I think it makes for very interesting reading.

It is too early to assume the Bradley model has turned!
Although many of the stock markets around the world were down this past Week, it is still too early to assess the ability of the Bradley stock market model to call the turn to the downside. After Monday’s sharp down day the market spent the rest of the week rallying back to Fibonacci levels.

I’m doing this week’s report a day early due to travel in China. The China that I am visiting is not the same China that I saw when I was in Shanghai in 2006.

FACTS about APPLE Computer

There are a lot of empty buildings around. Prices are much cheaper and the people are more friendly. In Hong Kong every other store seems to be a jewelry store selling high-end watches (i.e. $10,000 and up) and gold. During the weekend the mainland Chinese come in and fill the stores and buy everything in sight and the rest of the week the stores remain empty. Hong Kong real estate is still extremely expensive with prices above $10,000 a square foot.

I still remain bearish and am as nervous as I have been in many years. The chart of Apple shown in this week’s letter illustrates the importance of one company that has exceeded the size of all the companies of several nations combined in a matter of a few short years. Frankly, in all of my years of being in the investment world, I have never seen a stock like Apple that has all bullish followers and not one negative follower insight.. read the full newsletter here
Enjoy

Tom

Being Helpless (To do or not do)

My friend Julian was in the US when the Icelandic volcanic eruption disrupted flights over Europe. He was ecstatic. He is self-employed and didn’t per se need to get home in a hurry.  He wrote to me: “How lucky am I? I get an extra few days around the pool and the airline picks up my tab.”

Being Helpless (To do or not do)

Being Helpless (To do or not do)

He continued: “I was in the airport to get a status check, and I saw hoards of people standing in line to complain. I wonder why? Why would you complain over getting extra time off, when strictly speaking, you have been handed the most full proof excuse EVER?”

A couple of days later I received a phone call from him. I could tell from the tone of his voice that his initial excitement had diminished significantly. A week later he had made it to Madrid, had caught a flight to Paris, and he called me with desperation in his voice whilst on the Eurostar from Paris to London.  He was frustrated, tired and annoyed with his fellow passengers.

My friend shared his fate with thousands of people all over the world. Many missed important appointments, weddings, funerals, and anything in-between. The common denominator between them all was that they were waiting for someone else to do something. There was nothing, or at least very little they could do to help themselves. They experienced the feeling of being overwhelmed with a sensation of helplessness – being stripped of the ability to act and decide one’s own fate.

My friend’s descent from ecstasy to outright misery was fast, but at least he knew that in a matter of days he would be back to normal. Civilisation depended on getting the stranded passengers back home, and home they came. Their plight was real, their helplessness was genuine, but it was over relatively quick. Julian started off enjoying the circumstances, but as soon as he realised that he had no control over his fate, his perception of his world quickly changed. His emphasis changed to getting back to “safety”, to his familiar and known habitat.

Whilst all this was going on, I was aware of the situation of another friend of mine. He was seeking asylum in the UK. The case had dragged on for months. I could only speak to him occasionally, but when I did, I could hear the desperation in his voice. Like my friend Julian, he was waiting for someone else to do something. Unlike Julian, who knew that sooner or later his flight would depart, my friend in the asylum centre had no idea when he would receive a decision.

Days and weeks drag by, and the initial euphoria of being in a new and safe environment, away from the torment at home, was quickly replaced with despair and a feeling of being stripped of the ability to act.

You may ask what this has to do with trading. In my time as a broker, I came across many clients (too many) who were waiting for their positions to turn. The initial euphoria and promise of a successful trade was replaced with an ever-growing despair and helplessness. In some cases the open losses were life-changing.

One time I was urgently called back from a business meeting in Birmingham to the office in London, where a client was sitting waiting for me. He had lost £700k on a position, and he didn’t know what to do. It represented his life-savings, and he wanted my help.

Whilst talking to the client I learned that he had kept the position open for weeks, and had at times added to the trade. Every day his despair grew. It started off as a minor loss but had grown into a life-changing loss. He was helpless, like my asylum seeker friend, and like my friend stranded on a foreign shore.

At times I am helpless too. I sit and watch a position go nowhere, or worse, going nowhere but against me. When I find myself in a helpless situation, I know that I have to be careful. The tendency is to attempt to do something just to escape the feeling of helplessness. In my case it means adding to a losing position, which rarely is a good idea (if ever).

Julian couldn’t do anything, but to wait. However he knew that his ordeal would end sooner rather than later, but he felt his perception and ability to judge a situation and put it into its proper perspective had been distorted during the ordeal.

My asylum seeker friend lives and breathes his current reality every day. He can’t do anything and he doesn’t know WHEN this will change. Unlike Julian, he has to mentally control his thought patterns every day to stay sane.

My “client” had passed the point of no return. He was living and breathing the ultimate financial disaster: personal bankruptcy. In a sense his plight was over, but no doubt a new one were starting. He was helpless, but he had a choice, which he failed to act upon.

Being Helpless

Finally there is me (and you, if you trade).

We will no doubt find ourselves in positions where we are helpless at some point in the future. When I am helpless, I try to do the right thing and remove myself from the helplessness, by taking the loss, and move on. When I struggle to do that, I think of my client and my friend in the asylum centre. I have a choice, and although my ego will fight me very hard to convince me to keep the position open (at times the ego wins – even now with all the practise I have behind me- but it is becoming a rarity), I choose to remove myself from being helpless to being in control.

When you trade, make sure you are in control. One way of helping you overcome your ego and stay in control is to remember that in trading you are only helpless as long as you decide to stay helpless. The loss is real, and it may be significant, but don’t ever let it become a life-changing loss.

Tom Hougaard

Testosterone and Big Profits

Over the years as an employee in the City I periodically held trading seminars. At times I was asked the gender question: Are girls better traders than boys (women/men)?

I think from memory I answered that women made better traders than men. Granted, I may have done it to appease any female members of the audience. Please don’t hold it against me. It can be a tricky business to conduct a 3-hour seminar when someone is sending you dagger-eyes throughout.

I just so happened to come across a piece of research from the UK, by Mr Coates and Mr Page. It is a rather lengthy research paper, so I will condense it into bullet points below.

The Testosterone and Big Profits Question

The question being asked is:

Do traders with high levels of testosterone have a better track record in financial markets?

  • Researchers used the 2D:4D ratio (index finger vs. ring finger) as a measure of pre-natal androgen exposure

Testosterone and Big Profits

  • They analysed 53 male high-frequency traders (essentially intra-day traders trading FTSE and DAX futures) over a 20-month period from 2005-2007 and found that the risk adjusted returns for the experienced traders were higher than the Dax index itself.
  • They also found that a high level of testosterone among high frequency traders predicted higher long term profitability and a greater number of years of survival in the trading arena.
  • “High testosterone traders may welcome more risk, but their return per unit of risk is not very different from the rest. So testosterone cannot explain the high Sharpe Ratios. So what does determine the higher returns? Coates and Page found that Sharpe Ratios increase over time because traders learn to make more money per unit of risk that take. Simply put, it’s trading experience that counts.”

The journalist goes on to ask:

“But was the traders’ outperformance restricted to the boom years of 2005-07? Did they fail miserably in the crash of 2008?”

The researchers had the same doubts, which is why they asked the managers at the firm where they had carried out the study about the performance of their traders.

“The managers provided data showing that the experienced traders remaining at the firm during 2008 made on average more money than they had during the study, with many of them having record years.”

“One trader, for example, enjoyed a 6-day winning streak that saw his profits soar to twice their historic average and his daily testosterone levels rise by 76%. And on days when the traders’ morning levels of testosterone were higher than normal, they made higher profits than days when they started off with low levels.”

The Testosterone and Big Profits question

The researchers ruled out individual circumstances by asking through a questionnaire if the subjects had received any important personal news or had eaten anything that might significantly interfere with their release of hormones. And they excluded the effects of overarching movements in the markets by showing that different traders experienced bursts of testosterone on different days.

“The moral of the story: testosterone plus experience=successful trading. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if broking firms start checking the length of the ring and index fingers of their personnel before assigning them to the trading desk.”

The obvious question to ask is: how do you explain that a man wakes up with higher levels of testosterone in the body than on other days?

Tom speaks to Money Show

Tom Hougaard was a guest in the MoneyShow.com video studio at the recent Las Vegas Traders Expo. Karen Gibbs from MoneyShow.com is interviewing.

Tom speaks of how you can become part of the 1% that succeed and not the 99% that fail. Looking at sportsmen to illustrate his view of the path to success.
“Use failure to succeed, thereby work double hard to succeed”.

Tom speaks of Tiger Woods and Andre Agassi – Both considered by critics and fellow players to be amongst the greatest sportsmen of all time. Woods and Agassi had “grit and determination”.

“Trading isn’t a technique its in the mind”.

Tom speaks of lessons from the first few years of trading.

“Few people really look at there track records and see where they went wrong”.

Be Part of the 1% Who Succeed

Discipline Is the Holy Grail

“Stop looking elsewhere and look at yourself – follow your own style”

Two Different Markets

Two Different Markets

We have two different markets operating in the stock market presently. We have the New York Stock Exchange Index, which is the broadest index of all, telling us that this rally since August 9 has been incredibly weak, as shown by low volume and decreasing advance-decline ratios. On the other hand, we have the NASDAQ market that has taken out the August highs as of Friday’s close. The NASDAQ has been up 6% this week, which makes it the strongest week in over two years. The Dow Jones transports and the Russell index were incredibly weak and could not even attempt last week’s size. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both were able to retrace to the 78% retracement of the highs of last week. This sets up a move to the downside that should start immediately this coming week. The market has gone nowhere since August 9. Should we take out the August 9 lows we will be looking at a very severe correction taking us down through the October or later December cycle lows. Bear market rallies are very fast and do not last very long. If we have a strong up week in stocks this week then this analysis would be highly suspect.
There was a comparable period in 2008 right after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy when the market went sideways for 18 trading days. This is what has been occurring recently and whether it has the same downward characteristics as that move is well worth watching. Going below 1100 in the S&P 500 futures would be an indication that we are ready for another down move. This market continues to look bearish to us and is overbought on a short-term basis.
There is a new moon coming on September 27, which have usually been associated with highs, so if the market is making a high on September 27 it would most probably be a chance to get short for the coming week.

Profits & Peace of Mind from Larry Pesavento charts

Larry Pesavento Chart

Patterns – Profits & Peace of Mind - Larry Pesavento

Two Different Markets - Patterns – Profits & Peace of Mind

Larry Pesavento chart

Cash SP 500

Nasdaq 60 min

Larry Pesavento Russell Index

Chinese Real Estate

Treasury bonds

Treasury bonds continue to hover in the 140 area with a potential target taking it to 151. It’s hard to believe that 30 years ago these same bonds sold for 46 which made a $46,000 investment in $100,000 treasury bonds yielding 8% the best investment of the 1980s. For the past 30 years interest rates have been dropping. Credit cards are available to anyone that can sign his name or make an X. These debts are going to have to be repaid or massive defaults could arise. Destruction of the US dollar is also possible but it appears when push comes to shove the rest of the world sort of likes dollars when the rest of the world is being attacked financially. We are still waiting for an entry signal on the TBT which would get us short the treasury bonds. It will take some time for this pattern to unfold but we are watching it on a daily basis. If I had to pick a trade of the decade for the rest of the 2010-2020 period, this would be the one I’d choose.

Treasury bonds Chart

Treasury bonds charts

Treasury bonds

Gold

The Gold Bug Index that we featured in last week’s letter has so far shown that the 98% bullish consensus was a little too high. Gold has since corrected over $120 an ounce and is in the process now of recovering a bit. Silver, on the other hand, still looks incredibly bearish and cannot get out of its own way. No matter how much gold rallies, silver does not follow along in the same percentage. The Gold Silver Index is also showing signs of a major top so at this point it is prudent to stay away from long positions in these markets. Even copper was able to rally with the stocks this week which is highly unusual as it has a better than 85% correlation to stocks
These markets look like they want to go lower and not higher.

Gold Chart

Gold Analysis

Silver Chart

Copper Chart

Foreign exchange

The key to the foreign exchange market is to watch the euro/usd. All the financial press seems to think that the euro is going to hold up and maintain its positions of prominence across the European Community. There is also a small faction that think the euro will dissolve because of the different number of countries it is trying to represent with no common thread to prevent one country from cascading down its debt onto another country. They talk about Greece, Italy, Iceland, and Portugal, but there are other countries that are also wavering on the brink. The world is awash in debt. This debt is what is dragging us down. Not only on a country by country basis but on a global basis. No one is immune from China to the US and Norway to Argentina. We’ve all been borrowing too much money for too long a time and we are going to pay debts eventually. The real sleeper in the currency market in my opinion is to go short the Japanese yen versus the US dollar. The pattern is very similar to what happened with the Swiss Franc / US Dollar when the Swiss dropped the value by 10% overnight making Swiss deposits 10% less for those that just put their money into their bank for safekeeping. Foreign exchange trading is not for the faint of heart and when governments do these types of things it causes havoc, but usually for a short-term basis and then we go back to our daily lives. The US dollar has continued to hold and has rallied strongly from the 73 level. Watch the euro because if the euro drops below 134 it is going to signal that there is much more to go to the downside. This past week the euro rallied over 300 pips but that was coming after a 10 day down move that saw more than 1000 pips evaporate from that currency.

Foreign exchange USD

EUR USD Chart

Crude oil

Strong resistance still remains in crude oil at the $90 per barrel level. The 61% level on the daily chart has turned back prices six times in the past several weeks. It will take a strong move above $90 per barrel to get this market moving on the bullish side. I see no reason to be extremely bearish or bullish on crude oil as it seems to be in a trading range between $90 on the upside and $75 on the downside, which happened to be the culmination of the final pattern of the AB=CD pattern.

Crude oil

Technical corner

In my office I have a 4×4 oil painting done by a very famous artist from California who passed away many years ago. Her husband used to come into my office and see all of my little handwritten notes on note pads on my rules and patterns. For Christmas in 1976 I got this lovely oil painting that I treasure most dearly. At the top of the painting is a statement that says “he who knows not what he risks — risks all”.

The following are the 10 Commandments of trading that I try to follow religiously-

1 – never add to a losing position
2 – when in doubt, get out and stay out
3 – plan your trading and stick to it
4 – take equity out for rainy days and those less fortunate
5 – never close a trade without a reason
6 – stops are placed to protect you — make sure you use them
7 – the only true facts in commodity trading are fear and greed
8 – never allow a substantial profit to turn into a loss
9 – distribute your risk equally over several markets
10 – never hedge a losing position

Trade of the week

Last week we suggested that possibly taking a short position in the gold bug index was the right thing to do for highly speculative accounts and so far that has worked. This week the trade of the week is going to be patience – holding no position but waiting to enter the short treasury bond trade. We will live through this one together folks as I think it could be one that will be able to tell our grandchildren about, hopefully, if they’re still speaking to us. The chart pattern is certainly there but the entry pattern is not. We need a correction and then a quick retest to enter the market. I watch this one each day religiously and when we see it we will be ready.

Final thoughts

This week a very famous hedge fund manager, Bill Ackerman, came out and said that the best trading seen in years was to go long the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar. Currently the Hong Kong dollar is pegged at $7.75 to the US dollar. He feels that the market is going to go to a level where the Hong Kong dollar will appreciate to the US dollar. Keep in mind that China took over Hong Kong in 1997 from the United Kingdom. Nothing really changed politically or financially during that time and Hong Kong has now become the Switzerland of the Far East. Make no mistake about it, the Chinese have a lot of power there and at any time they could do something to upset the apple cart. However, this is a very unlikely event. What is interesting about Mr. Ackerman’s comments is the fact that he was so adamant about it and is willing to share with everyone why he was doing it and what a great trade it was. This reminds me of some comments made by one of the greatest traders ever, Amos Barr Hostetter, who single-handedly trained many of the market wizards and great traders during his tenure at Commodities Corp. which he started in the early 60s. Amos said keep your own counsel. Do not tell everyone what you are doing or why because then you become attached to the outcome and that is a very dangerous situation. Lose your opinion instead of your money which is a famous quote from Paul Tudor Jones.