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The US housing data continues to shake the market whenever economic reports are released, but the fact remains that the market continues to recover. The chart below for the SP500 shows the hourly chart over the last 4 months. It shows the extent to which the index has recovered since the February sell-off, which today is a month ago.
Index Analysis:FTSE 100 analysis - Dow analysis - Dax analysis
SP500
The chart below is a basic view of the SP500. It shows the resistance at 1440, which is an old top from mid-january. At this point I would be predominately bearish against 1440 cash price in the SP500. However, I have to admit that even though I am expecting lower prices from a technical perspective, I studied past "quarter-ends" and it is unlikely we will see any significant downside between now and Friday. So my short positions are going to be intra-day trades. This morning the DAX cash market gapped up through the 61.8% retracement of the range of yesterdaym but was unable to break the 78.6% retracement. I am short the Dax at 6575 with a stop at 6585. I dont believe in this rally, with Asia as weak as it was.
If we were to trade down below the "pre-Fed-rally", I would be surprised it we didnt get another retest of 1370 in the SP500.
sorry for the delay today. We had a fire alarm here..
ANALYSIS
