Should you Sell in May and Go Away asks Larry Pesavento?

This axiom is probably as old as the public market itself (at least here in the U.S.) and is likely one of the most strongly held as well. Whether it will be strongly relevant this year is still unclear given the unusually bullish consensus among investors which is exceeding the highs seen back in 2000 and also 2007. While we are not near the 2007 highs in most indices, there are certain components (e.g. individual S&P sectors) that have exceeded those levels.

This past week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke once again assured us that a moderate recovery is in place and that there are no signs of rapid inflation. His precise description of the inflation situation (“transitory”) belied his assertion and simply confirmed what I postulated quite a while ago: his wife does not do the shopping or buy gas for the family. Also reacting to the inflationary environment are the commodity markets and the Commodity Research Board index is now testing the 0.618 retracement of the entire herd move from 2007. With gold and silver at record highs and gasoline and heating oil about to hit record highs, it seems that we are clearly headed for a bout of strong, possibly long-term, inflation.

Stock Markets

The previous lunar cycles in the stock market have coincided with highs made on new moons followed by corrections into full moons. We will have a new moon coming this week (Tuesday) and several strong astroharmonic dates that come into play on Sunday night. We have exceeded just the 0.786 retracement in the weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrials and are close to doing so for the S&P 500 as well. Euphoria on Wall Street is as strong as I have seen in a few years (most recently 2007), though it does not compare to March of 2000. Back then, stocks would jump 10 to 50% in one day on the slightest inclination of the market pundit. We are currently not in that type of market.

The Dow Jones Transportations and the Dow Jones Utilities are both currently completing “three drive” patterns and the VIX volatility index is within a heartbeat of all-time lows. In addition, the Dow Jones has been up for eight straight weeks which in itself is an outlier event and a movement of 4% within a single month is also unusual. Given these conditions, it would not surprise me that the indices could break above the high of February 21 which we have previously mentioned was a very important astroharmonic date. Ordinarily, I would issue a strong sell signal for all stocks across the board but here I will wait until I see some indication of market weakness. Under most circumstances, the ratio of new highs to new lows should have discouraged the Bulls, but Thursday and Friday ratios (which looked a little better) may have reinvigorated them. History has told me that buying when everyone else is bullish is a good way to separate yourself from your money.

Foreign Currencies

The U.S. dollar continues to come under attack as the Federal Reserve did essentially nothing after Wednesday’s meeting to increase interest rates, which would have brought dollar buyers into the market. With rumors circulating that the Chinese could revalue the renminbi dramatically to offset an overheating market and inflation. This has spooked the market sufficiently to drive the dollar down 5% in the past few months. From the long-term chart, you can see that the U.S. dollar index is completing a major AB=CD pattern and could easily drop another 5%. However, the dollar is also extremely oversold at the moment and in the news constantly which makes it a perfect candidate for a quick reversal if some of the complacent shorts are scared. Meanwhile, the Euro has exceeded the 1.48 level and appears ready to move towards the 1.51 level. The Japanese yen is the only currency that the dollar has held its own against and it should have support at around 80 versus the dollar which is the 0.618 retrace from the April high. The most immediate effect of a weak dollar is that things will be more expensive for us here at home and when traveling abroad, and will continue to drive up the prices for hard assets.

Precious Metals

Both gold and silver charged to new record highs this week. The action on Friday was particularly interesting as silver played the weak sister to gold which jumped nearly $30 an ounce. Platinum was also quite strong, breaking out to a consolidation pattern. On the other hand, copper has been down for a consecutive number of weeks and has not been maintaining its normally tight correlation to the stock market (usually there is 95% chance that higher stock prices translate to higher copper prices). If stocks continue higher, copper would probably be a low risk buy near the $4 per pound range.

As you may recall from our previous letter, silver is in a parabolic move and could easily reverse direction abruptly. This week, the open interest for silver actually decreased on two trading days, which indicates that shorts were exiting the market with no longs were coming on board. While information from just two trading sessions is insufficient to call the direction of the market, it is something we will continue to monitor. There has never been a parabolic market that has not ended badly, but there is always a possibility this might be the first.

Crude Oil

The 0.786 retracement of the entire bear move for crude oil prices is at $122 per barrel. Given the way crude has been trading recently, we could complete this retracement this coming week, where there might be some resistance. Heating oil and gasoline have already exceeded their own 0.786 levels and are just a short distance to their all-time highs of 2007. All of us use these products and it now a de facto tax for all households – except that the proceeds go towards oil corporations rather than our national debt. With prices creeping towards record highs again, profits at the major oil producers are once again approaching 2007 levels. Strangely, our government remains oblivious to the fact that we do have plenty of domestic oil reserves (and a portfolio of nascent alternative energy technologies ready to be tested on the marketplace), putting most citizens in a difficult bind. However, the issue is a global one and we might still consider ourselves lucky compared to Londoners who are paying over $10 a gallon for gasoline! Nonetheless, crude oil continues to be one of the best intraday trading vehicles available to traders and with a raging market right now, swings of several thousand dollars can take place several times a day.

Treasury Bonds

After being oversold for many weeks in March, Treasury bonds reacted in April and finally reached the upper end of the trading level we had been expecting. While these past few weeks have relieved the oversold condition the market is still in a long-term downtrend and it appears they are now ready for a turnaround towards lower prices. Why anybody would want to buy Treasury bonds in an atmosphere of potential interest rate increases and a weakening dollar is a mystery to me, but the market is irrational more often than not.

Technical Corner

This week’s Corner deals with pattern failure, in this case the failure of Gartley patterns. As you can see from the price chart of Research in Motion (RIMM), the stock completed a perfect Gartley pattern and then rallied to the first profit objective of $4 per share. However, bad news overnight then instigated strong selling in the morning and the market gapped down to the 0.786 retracement and would have put traders who did not exit their entire position in the red. Nonetheless, we would have chosen to let this trade be stopped out on the open as gaps are unpredictable and we do not know how far they can go. The fact that this stopped at the 0.786 level is really a moot point because of the huge gap that it left from the previous day’s close. Gaps and wide-ranging bars are danger signals that preclude pattern failure and should be avoided at all cost. We have no control over the overnight news that affects markets in stocks but we can react to protect our capital.

Trade of the Week

This week’s Trade features Intel (INTC) which has completed a 0.786 retracement of the down move from a year ago. As you can see, it bounced perfectly off of the 0.618 retracement several weeks ago and has now reached the level where we think it should start inflecting towards the downside. In contrast, no such pattern can be seen for another technology giant, Cisco. The exact selling price was 22.93 and the market looked like it was going to close below there but buying in the last two minutes of trading pushed it back up to close above 23.10. A Stop at 23.99 will be set for this trade, which equates to less than a dollar per share in terms of risk. Our trade of the week from last week (short S&P 500 by going long SDS) was very close to being stopped out but it is still active with a stop at 19.44.

Final Thoughts

The stock market is now just a whisker away from where it was back in August 2007. On that wild day on August 15 2007 (which marked a dip during the very peak of the previous bull market) we had some of the strongest astroharmonic points that have been seen in over 100 years coming together. It was my assumption that once we broke those lows, we would be in a vicious bear market for several years. While subsequent drop was undoubted spectacular, there has been no sign of a multi-year bear market. Is the downward trend all but over now, or are we getting ready to start down again?

The key to this probably lies in the temporary low that occurred on August 27 of 2010. This too was an event not seen in hundreds of years. Should we ever go below that low (right now we are better than 25% above it) we will be quite certain that there is another leg down in store for this bear market. Importantly, the real estate index, which reflects the economic quagmire we are in, is still languishing at 50% from its peak. In the meantime though, we have to respect the fact that markets can do whatever they wish.

This market has already done what few investors and traders could have imagined and rallied for 25 straight months in some of the most bearish environments for stocks. At this point, it is important remember lessons learned from previous market outliers. The one that immediately comes to mind is when the market simply refused to drop for nine weeks back in 2000. However, when the market eventually did fall in March 2000, it gave back an astounding 85% of the gains of the past decade. The lesson learned here, in my opinion, was that is better to be safe and cautious rather than trying to squeeze the last dollar out of an aging bull. With the real estate market still languishing around 50%

For the past week or so the majority of the financial press have been suggesting that the Dow Jones industrial average is about to break out to new highs (i.e. above 12,400). From a technical perspective, we are sitting at an interesting intersection. The DJIA closed at 12,505, which as you can see from the enclosed weekly chart, is almost the exact 0.786 retracement of the entire bear market at 12,488. The lack of confirmation in the Dow Jones Transportation index (it was only able to make a 0.618 retracement) as well as the Dow Jones utilities, would suggest that the breakout may not be imminent, or at least involve the broader market. Likewise, the New York Stock Exchange index has also been unable to make new highs.

In addition to the divergence in the Dow Jones and Transports and the failure to confirm new highs in essentially all indices, we are also seeing a continued deterioration in the ratio of new highs to new lows along with an all-time high in the percentage of bullish in the stock market (exceeding even the high of 2000). All of these factors would argue against a breakout to the upside. But does that mean the market has to go down? Absolutely not, but the odds certainly favor at least a substantial correction from here on, especially given that since the February 21 high the market has been locked within a trading range. However, should the Dow close significantly above 12,500 and the S&P 500 above 1340 in this week, it could be signs that a breakout is taking place.

Treasury Bonds

Treasury bonds have completed a 61% rally off of the previous high, correcting a very oversold environment that was present two weeks ago. The trend is still down for treasury bonds in my opinion. Yet what amazes me is that the Street’s appetite for risk remains unabated as can be seen from the high-grade bond index (HYG) which shows investors piling on greater risks in lower quality bonds. It will be interesting to see the reaction to the bond market when the Fed’s QE2 program comes to an end in June, especially if further injection of capital to the banks will be necessary. One thing that is certain at this point is that the easing programs have done nothing to help the economy except the major banks.

Foreign Currencies

As we mentioned last week in our update, the U.S. dollar index broke below 75.00, a story which was the center of attention in financial press outlets. The dollar is now at the completion of two AB=CD patterns and it must hold the 74 level to avert a further decline. The Euro made the 1.46 level that we discussed in our last letter and the British pound moved above the 1.65 level which we also forecasted. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc all made fresh moves to higher ground against the dollar. It is very clear that the dollar is literally in a fight for its life. If the dollar disintegrates, inflation will explode, putting our economy in an ever direr situation (in effect it allows people to buy our goods at a much cheaper price while we must pay a higher price for imported goods) and acts as another invisible tax like high gasoline prices.

This week is going to be yet another important week because of the technical picture in the dollar and the other currencies. On top of this action will be a Federal Reserve on Wednesday (April 27) where there may be an announcement regarding interest policy.

Precious Metals

Both gold and silver exceeded their previous highs this past week. Gold has some resistance at the $1510 to 1520 per ounce level while silver is in an apparent parabolic move. Enclosed is the 30-year chart for silver which shows the old high at $54 an ounce back in 1980. We are now approaching that level in May silver as of writing. Looking at the ETF for silver (SLV) we can also see some strong harmonics with regard to time and price. It is almost impossible to pick the ending points or parabolic moves so it is hard to predict the path for silver. Either silver will stop at this level or it is anyone’s guess. As you can see from the long-term daily silver chart there are two 1.27 expansion moves completing at the $46 level. Technically, this suggests that we should open lower on Sunday night and at least start a significant correction. Parabolic moves happen very infrequently but they all end the same way – badly.

What is also really amazing is the shear amount of bad information on the Internet regarding silver. For example, some articles mention that there were no shorts in silver, only longs, which is one of the more ridiculous comments I have ever come across. For every long there must be a short which is why they call it a commodity contract (and margin must be posted for both longs and shorts). So in order to slow the rise of silver, all that is necessary is for commodity exchanges to increase the margin requirements for both longs and shorts to protect them from getting hurt. Whether this will happen like it did in January of 1980 remains to be seen. All over the internet are prophecies of $100 and even $200 per ounce silver. This is not news…the same thing happened back in the bull market of 1980 before silver dropped to four dollars an ounce 20 years later.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appears to be headed all the way towards the $122 per barrel level. However it might have some resistance at the $112 level as tensions in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya, and other Middle Eastern countries are mitigated for the time being. This is reflected in gasoline prices at near record highs. Heating oil prices have also matched the old highs from 2008 but the winter season is now ending so there should be a little bit of relief on this front at least.

Technical Corner

This week’s technical corner pays tribute to the Fibonacci ratio-inspired 0.618 retracement level. You can see from the below AUD/USD chart the number of times the 0.618 retracement has marked the exact level for a bottom. In addition to that, note how the time frames between each low were very similar! This is the textbook example of trend following. Buying higher bottoms at the 0.618, especially for the time frames between the equal bottoms, would be a classic definition of trend. Higher bottoms are uptrends while lower tops are downtrends.

The Trade of the Week

Several weeks ago, we went long on the ultra short ETF for the S&P 500 (SDS) at 20.57. We raised the stop to 20.44 and it was executed on Friday at 20.41. It was my opinion at that time that the market could not make a new high from April 5. Unfortunately, the Dow’s strength managed to drag it along as the stock closed. I remain bearish on the S&P for now and would look to re-enter SDS on Monday with a stop of 1.00 dollar.

Our second trade for this week is going to be in the ETF for silver (SLV) which we mentioned briefly above. I have chosen this trade for two reasons: first, it shows perfectly symmetrically time in each up move; secondly, these both measure perfectly in price. However we must be able to sell as the market is going down, so I would put a sell stop in SLV at 44.10. If it is filled, I suggest placing a buy stop at 46.02. I don’t consider this a high risk trade because we are able to place a stop after the market moves down from a high and we are able to control a risk by placing a stop after we have filled. In the case that the market doesn’t go down, then there will simply be no trade. Parabolic moves end badly usually as I mentioned before – in fact, I cannot remember ever seeing one that did not end badly and that’s after looking at thousands of charts over 50 years. Again, it is extremely important that you enter SLV on weakness in order to control risk.

Final thoughts

The Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday is going to be an unusual one because it will take place right in the middle of the trading day followed by an explanation/press conference by the chairman that will be televised for all to see. The buzz is that the Fed may announce a surprise (to some) rate increase to combat inflation and the serious erosion in the U.S. dollar. While it is common knowledge that the Fed’s unofficial policy is to inflate our way out of trouble, recent indications of dissent among board members over the issue of rates has many on the Street speculating. Given Europe’s willingness to raise rates and rumors of another renminbi revaluation by the Chinese, there may be just enough to sway the Fed this time.

Regardless of the Fed’s decision, it seems that interest rates have already begun rising, as shown by the price of Treasury bonds and the price of home mortgages. Interest rates in Europe have started to rise. It’s just a matter of time before the Fed has to raise rates in order to stem the inflation and put the banks back into a (normal) position where they must loan money in order to make money. At the moment, banks simply take money from the Fed at a quarter of a percent and are free to put it into Treasury bonds at 3 1/2%, pocketing the difference with virtually no risk. We should all be lucky to be able to do this, though keep in mind that the Fed is the byproduct of the banks themselves and exists to to serve them, not the people. Andrew Jackson was the most adamant adversary of the Federal Reserve during his tenure and it wasn’t until 1913 that it reappeared as the monster that we now know. His arguments, which are well documented, still hold true today.

Finally, I will reiterate that I do not believe that this is a new bull market. Nonetheless, one must respect a market that has been able to rally for 24 months. It seems like a lifetime ago that the world was coming to an end and Hank Paulson and his team came in to save all the banks that were worth saving. I don’t believe this credit cycle is over but history will have the final word.

A Quick Update of the Markets (4-18-2011) From Larry Pesavento Newsletter

Travel issues have prevented me from providing a full review of the markets on Monday. Instead, we will present a full review of the markets on Wednesday, at which time we will also be able to gauge the effects of the latest lunar cycle.

Stock Markets

Over the past three lunar cycles, stocks have been behaving in the exact opposite direction as would have been predicted by the Royal Bank of Scotland method (buy on the new moon, sell on the full moon). Instead, during this time, stocks have been higher during the new moon than at the full moon. We begin this week with another full moon Monday (April 18) and with the markets at critical support levels. This is particularly true of the Nasdaq. Notice also that the three-drive to a top patterns which we identified in the Dow Transportation Index and Russell small caps have also led to some noticeable dips and are approaching Fibonacci retracement levels.

The technology sector has been the leader of the bullish parade in stocks, but four of the major Nasdaq stocks (Apple, Google, Cisco, and Research in Motion) are currently at very oversold levels.

Thus, a moment of truth is at hand and if we drop below last week’s low in the stock market it would suggest lower prices to come. However, the next 3 days will be critical in determining the short and medium term direction of the market (another reason for issuing an interim report). This is because it is unusual for new moon – full moon cycles to repeat for more than 3 iterations yet we are in the process of a third repetition right now. If the stock market is truly a bullish one, we should see it take out the highs of February 21 with gusto.

Other Markets

On Friday, we hit key levels in the Euro/U.S. dollar cross rate (1.45). Crude oil also touched $110 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold has begun completing some of the key AB=CD patterns as we have been suggesting over the past three weeks near the $1,490 per ounce level.

Trades of the Week update

We are currently maintaining three open positions which are short long term bonds (long TBT), short S&P 500 (long SDS), and short commodities (short DBA). These are all working as of writing and are showing a profit so far. I suggest placing protective stops to keep potential losses to a minimal level in the event that there is a reversal in their trends.

A Quick Update of the Markets by Larry Pesavento

Travel issues have prevented me from providing a full review of the markets on Monday. Instead, we will present a full review of the markets on Wednesday, at which time we will also be able to gauge the effects of the latest lunar cycle.

Stock Markets

Over the past three lunar cycles, stocks have been behaving in the exact opposite direction as would have been predicted by the Royal Bank of Scotland method (buy on the new moon, sell on the full moon). Instead, during this time, stocks have been higher during the new moon than at the full moon. We begin this week with another full moon Monday (April 18) and with the markets at critical support levels. This is particularly true of the Nasdaq. Notice also that the three-drive to a top patterns which we identified in the Dow Transportation Index and Russell small caps have also led to some noticeable dips and are approaching Fibonacci retracement levels.

The technology sector has been the leader of the bullish parade in stocks, but four of the major Nasdaq stocks (Apple, Google, Cisco, and Research in Motion) are currently at very oversold levels.

Thus, a moment of truth is at hand and if we drop below last week’s low in the stock market it would suggest lower prices to come. However, the next 3 days will be critical in determining the short and medium term direction of the market (another reason for issuing an interim report). This is because it is unusual for new moon – full moon cycles to repeat for more than 3 iterations yet we are in the process of a third repetition right now. If the stock market is truly a bullish one, we should see it take out the highs of February 21 with gusto.

Other Markets

On Friday, we hit key levels in the Euro/U.S. dollar cross rate (1.45). Crude oil also touched $110 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold has begun completing some of the key AB=CD patterns as we have been suggesting over the past three weeks near the $1,490 per ounce level.

Trades of the Week update

We are currently maintaining three open positions which are short long term bonds (long TBT), short S&P 500 (long SDS), and short commodities (short DBA). These are all working as of writing and are showing a profit so far. I suggest placing protective stops to keep potential losses to a minimal level in the event that there is a reversal in their trends.

Heightened Expectations vs. Wisdom and Experience by Larry Pesavento

Stocks

We have previously described the analytical value of lunar cycles applied to market movements, and also highlighted how the folks at Royal Bank of Scotland have validated this model. Interestingly, the latest lunar cycle appears to have inverted; specifically, the market seems to be making highs on the arrival of a new moon while reaching lows during the full moon. This was particularly true for the latest cycle, as shown in our first chart below.

In addition to this cyclical development, the Dow Transportation index has now completed a “three-drive to a top” pattern and the Nasdaq has completed a 0.786 retrace of the February 21 high as has the Dow Jones Utilities index. The Dow Jones Industrials was able to make a surge to a new high above the February 21 high. However, note that this major index is comprised of only 30 stocks and is now heavily influenced by the oil stocks as well as the likes of Caterpillar and IBM. Given that there was also a P-index date on April 2 (which fell on Saturday) it would suggest that we could start down this Monday. Put this into a context where the bulls on the street are highly complacent (virtually no one believes that any correction will be anything other than a short lived, small percentage drop), and there may be some significant action to the downside. Monday’s action should give a good idea of how this situation will bear out.

Treasury Bonds

The past week, Treasury bonds completed the perfect AB=CD pattern that we depicted in last week’s letter. This sets the stage for action in bonds moving forward, which should trade in a range with an upper end of 122 and approximately 119 on the lower side. Our bias is that Treasury bonds will trade in the lower end of this window and expect bonds to be under continued pressure over the long-term. Regarding my comments about how we are currently at the latter stages of a massive debt cycle akin to the one in 1837, John Maudlin’s new book (aptly called The End Game) vividly describes our current debt cycle and contains many illustrative graphs. I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in what a long term debt cycle really looks like and how things could potentially play out.

Foreign Currencies

The U.S. dollar continues to be under attack and is now ready to retest the critical 75 level on the dollar index. The Euro is encountering resistance at the 1.44 level while resistance for the British pound rests at the 1.64 level. It should be noted that not all foreign currencies are increasing against the dollar. Two notable examples are the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen which are both losing ground to the dollar, the second most likely the result of central bank intervention following the disasters that struck Japan just a few weeks ago. In addition, the Australian dollar, which is highly influenced by commodity prices, is making a “three-drive to a top” pattern at the 1.04 level.

Metals

Gold has maintained much of its strength from last week and could easily be headed to $1,500 per ounce if it breaks above 1,450. There is strong support at the 1,400 level, so we are likely to trade in a range between 1,400–1,500 for the coming week barring any extraordinary developments. Silver is still quite volatile and could easily reach $39-40 per ounce if gold makes a strong upward move. In contrast, copper has been continuing to weaken which is very uncharacteristic of a bull market since stocks would typically be pulling it higher. Below $4.10 a pound, I believe that tin and copper will turn lower.

Crude Oil Complex

The unrest in the Middle East, along with the pressure on the U.S. dollar continues to drive commodity and oil prices. The price of crude oil has exceeded the 1.618 expansion and appears to be headed towards $120 per barrel, which is the 0.786 retrace of the all-time high. Consistent with a general advance in the complex, we have already exceeded the 0.786 retracement for heating oil and gas futures are following right behind towards this same level.

Technical Corner

This week we turn our focus to ETFs as a vehicle for trading. While many, including myself, have touted their usefulness for tracking large and/or complex markets, there are certain limitations. In particular, I want to highlight the fact that at the end of the day, ETFs are funds and therefore do not always exactly track the performance of the target market with 100% precision. A good example of this is the DBA (Powershares DB Agriculture) which we recommended going short 2 weeks ago, which put us short for soybeans, wheat and sugar. On Friday the government released grain reserve numbers indicating that we were short on supplies of all members of the grain complex. My first reaction was that this would be highly detrimental for our short DBA position because they are so intimately linked. However, in actuality the market hardly moved at all, highlighting the feasibility of relying entirely on ETFs for trading certain commodities. I do not know the underlying reason for this discrepancy, but something is usually not right when the ETFs fail to respond to what should be significant developments. While this is typically less of a problem with high volume/liquid ETFs, stops should always be employed to protect against this kind of divergence, even if it did work to our advantage in this case.

Trade of the Week

This week, we have our eyes on two potential trades. The first involves FXI, which is an ETF for the Chinese market. This has completed a major sell Gartley and we will be looking to go short on it. As we discussed above, there are currently multiple patterns completing in the overall stock market indices. Given the implications and the upcoming key astro dates which suggest that they could start downwards this week, we will be looking to make the ETF SDS (weighted short S&P 500) as our second trade of the week.

Final Thoughts

This past week was a very emotional week in the markets given that the Dow was able to make a new high above the February 21 high, if only by five points at 24,405. Not surprisingly, pundits on the likes of CNBC and Bloomberg have been describing this as the sign of a major breakout, even though the high was unconfirmed in the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange index, among others. Indeed, the new highs and lows are still lagging far behind what would be considered a real bull market. Moreover, the VIX volatility index is also down in oversold territory, suggesting a change in direction may be forthcoming. Another important aspect to watch in the financial sphere is that of inflation. The CRB (Commodities Research Board) index is a must watch indicator because of the increasingly real potential for hyperinflation as crude oil and grain prices continue their relentless move upwards. Any new highs in CRB could mark the beginning of a parabolic drive. Finally, there appears to be at least some internal dissent within the Federal Reserve over its long term interest policy. With the European central bank looking to raise rates this coming week, the Fed’s own actions (and the fate of the dollar) will be put to test in what is shaping up to be an interesting week, to say the least.