I am staying biased for the SHORT SIDE. Bounces are shallow. Everyone is talking about oil being cheap, even people who know nothing about the markets. Oil needs to get above $49.70 to show any kind of traction to the upside. Intra-day I can change my mind if I see a long extended bar to the upside.
Dow looks suspicious to me. We have a strong DAX index caused my rumours of QE out of ECB. It would not be the first time a QE rally has faded. The mere fact we are only hearing rumours suggest that the details are still being worked out. Dow made a double top Friday, and caught everyone by surprise. Price action reminds me of what you see in the RED box. There it was a new week and market rallied, but failed by the time the Dow stocks opened. I am neutral and am awaiting the open. I can’t deny 17,700 looks strong, so I will be biased long above, but below tells me 17,300 again.
Nothing goes down forever. GBP AUD has made a buy entry for me. It sold off Sunday night and lost 90 pips. Since then it has taken out the start of Sunday night and is trending up. I would prefer to have seen a more solid basing pattern, and I am not suggesting down-trend is over, but it may be. I am buying as long as we are above 1.8480.